Next-Gen Console War Predictions

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    • Next-Gen Console War Predictions

      In terms of new units sold, worldwide, what will be the score between Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo after the dust settles on Christmas 2008?

      My prediction:

      Sony - 59%
      Microsoft - 29%
      Nintendo - 12%

      Closest prediction gets permenant bragging rights.

      My reasoning:

      It looks like the PS3 is going to outperform the XBOX this time around - the big question is whether or not the market cares more about the additional performance, and the ability of developers to truly support it, more than a unified online experience offered by XBOX Live.

      As always, the market will follow the content, not the hardware specs - and XBOX Live is a big part of that content.

      My bet is that Sony will lose market share to Microsoft on the XBOX 360, but still come out as the top seller, and Nintendo will remain about the same.
      Mr.Mike
      Author, Programmer, Brewer, Patriot
    • RE: Next-Gen Console War Predictions

      My prediction:

      XBOX2 - 40%
      SONY - 30%
      Nintendo - 20%

      I think that the 360's marketing team and developer tools will push more games to the xbox. Sony is doing some idiot stuff with teh PS3 and marketing it like the are the PSP (more for movies less for games) and because of that they are goingto loos alot of ground to the 360. Nintendo's die-hard fans and the classic gamers will move toward the revolution but it wont be anything spectacular but more of a cult sensation.
      .Code
      push you ; haha!
    • RE: Next-Gen Console War Predictions

      I agree that Nintendo will probably stay about where it was. The truth is, any hardcore gamer will end up having both, but I have a feeling that xbox will end up coming out on top. I think the online multiplayer aspect of the 360 will win out.

      Either way, I think it'll be very close between the two

      xbox: 45%
      Ps3: 40%
      Nintendo 15%

      And like most statistical numbers, these are based on absolutely noting. :D


      -Rez
    • RE: Next-Gen Console War Predictions

      I don't know. I think the Revolution has the serious potential of tapping the casual market hardcore. I mean, this Christmas I got my mother DDR (the last video game she bought was when Dr. Mario came out for the NES). I think this may be the generation where the hardcore gamer loses its grip on the videogame world, and the casuals become the target majority. It might not happen, but it damn near could! If it does, I think the Revolution is looking good (on paper) to sweep up those gamers and steal the market.

      I mean, the DS has sold 14 million units compared to PSP's 3 or 4 million? And that was BEFORE Sony began to be slaughtered in the press for the copy protection thing.

      Of course, the Revolution will also be cheap enough that even the hardcore gamers will likely pick it up if there is a good game for it, so there is the potential for a serious coup building up.

      It IS Nintendo, though...
      -Larrik Jaerico

      www.LarrikJ.com

      The post was edited 1 time, last by Larrik ().

    • RE: Next-Gen Console War Predictions

      I certainly hope so, Larrik! Rat Race is targeting the lonely housewife audience and those who like soaps and sitcoms as opposed to gamers. It gives them a chance to live the sitcom, and isn't all that complex from a gameplay point of view.

      -Rez
    • hmm. tough numbers. are these percenteges overall units sold? a lot of hardcore people will own more than one, etc.

      anyway.
      ps3-60%
      xbox-20%
      nintendo-20%

      xbox lost a lot of ground with their hardware glitch. I know a couple mothers who think xbox put a damper on christmas.

      I mean, a hardcore gamer might still buy one when the glitch is ironed out, but a lot of the casual audience lost faith.

      besides, nintendo's going the creativity route, and that has potential for increase.
      playstation already has a huge marketbase, which backwards compatability will capitalize on. plus, their PR on the matter suggests they're going to continue developing it until its really ready
      (Place cool Signature here)
    • Plus Sony hardware sucks, Microsoft hardware sucks, and Nintendo's is usually really polished.

      But the Sony hype machine... damn. They've raised the bar in advertising, and are largely responsible for the mainstream status of videogames today.
      -Larrik Jaerico

      www.LarrikJ.com
    • I disagree on alot of those points larrik. I 360's hardware is really polished this time around but sonyis definatly having some issues with thier processor (considering the new technologoy and what not)

      But sony has taken a nose dive in the marketing area because of rootkit and the fact that sony has gotten a bad rep. Not that they dont deserve it considering the fact that they dont listen to any of their customers.
      .Code
      push you ; haha!
    • Well, I keep hearing reports of the 360 locking up and scratching game discs, neither of which have been an issue on ANY Nintendo device.

      Still, I don't want you to think I'm some Nintendo fanboy - I'm not. I have no "corporate loyalties" and am way too lazy to put up with bullshit on a system. Either way, I'm not paying $400 for a game system, so I'm going to be waiting until I think I desperately need it, or the prices come way down. Hell, I haven't beaten a console game since WoW came out.
      -Larrik Jaerico

      www.LarrikJ.com
    • Hehe, I hear ya. I'd rather spend that $400 to upgrade my PC, or buy 8 - 10 games for it. The last console I bought was Super Nintendo for about $20 at a garage sale so I could play Super Metroid.

      -Rez
    • In terms of new units sold worldwide...

      Revolution 45%
      Sony 30%
      360 25%

      People like us don't constitute the market that controls sales. The Revolution will be the cheapest next-gen console by far, and its graphics are "good enough" for parents who are looking to purchase something that'll keep their kids busy.

      Sony will still have the edge over Microsoft because the Japanese market will not support more than one next-gen console in the house, and they'll favor the home team.

      I'll be getting all three, eventually :)
    • First i think the biggest mistake microsoft has made so far is when they stated there goal of "3 Million Units in the first 3 months" they didn't even come close to releasing that amount for the public to buy. Now they have restated there goal to 5 Million by June.

      The 360 has made a huge stride into the Japanese market I believe. With liscenses with companys like Square-Enix and now XBox Live liscenses with EA I believe the 360 will spread to much further lengths then the XBox did. I know there are a few other big Japanese developers now signed with the 360, I'm just blanking on them at the moment.

      For portable I see can see Nintendo's domination, although I still love my PSP, but for console, I dont think they can compete. The seeming Target audience of Nintendo has always seemed very young for many of there games. Even though the cost will be less for the revolution, I still see it as pretty expensive for the average parent to afford.

      For sales I see the 360 and PS3 to be pretty similar.
      40% Xbox
      40% PS3
      20% Nintendo
      Wort wort wort.
    • I doubt the 360 will unseat the PS3, and I doubt the Revolution will, either. I think either the Revolution will see Nintendo's lowest share ever, or will blow everyone away and match PS3. Beat PS3, though? Not likely.

      The problem is that the PS3 current hype is all bullshit (most Sony hype is), but everyone buys into it. I mean, PSP movies are a terrible idea, and they sell.

      I guess I'll finally give numbers.

      PS3 - 45%
      XboX360 - 15%
      Nintendo - 40%
      -Larrik Jaerico

      www.LarrikJ.com
    • Sony killed the Dreamcast with their bum rap lies about fractally generated trees growing in realtime, but I digress.

      Two things to consider:
      • Graphics for this next generation of consoles are basically at a point where they just don't matter, as far as the mass market is concerned. Tech specs are irrelevant. This is going to be a pure marketing war.
      • The Revolution's hardware is likely to retail for a significantly cheaper price than the 360 or PS3 by at least $100.

      My points are formatted very nicely on this forum thread using special formatting tags with bullet points and indentations, so there is no way that I can possibly be wrong.
    • RE: Next-Gen Console War Predictions

      Im a little late in this discussion. I found this morning. I have no clue if any of you are current developing for PS3. I do not know if this guy in this article is actually developing for PS3. but something is not right with PS3. But they might win the next gen console wars. kotaku.com/gaming/ps3/sony-ins…r-ps3-comments-148088.php
    • WOW - no wonder they removed the post - that guy would have been disappeared by the secret NDA police.

      And, I think that guy could be right - devs need time with the real hardware to really make it sing. By releasing earlier than Sony, XBOX360 developers will know more about the XBOX than anyone knows about the PS3....so there is a good argument for better games on the 360 BEFORE games of a similar quality on PS3.

      If that happens - PS3 'should' loose market share to the 360 - which is my bet.
      Mr.Mike
      Author, Programmer, Brewer, Patriot
    • Originally posted by mrmike
      WOW - no wonder they removed the post - that guy would have been disappeared by the secret NDA police.


      I really hope they find his remains. I bet his game consoles and games are wandering where his at. Never mind his family.

      Now I have been finding some interesting images over the year on PS3 . It seem is was just a concept design. Just like the concept car design we see in the car shows. We never see it come into market.
    • i think xbox is easier to develop for.

      Unless sony takes some actions on making developing for the ps3 more productive.

      the ps3 dev platform has had bad reviews.

      I personally think the tech inside the ps3 is much better then the xbox tech.

      It is just a matter of who platform will delivery the most AAA games.

      Developers are going to gear more toward xbox if they want to get there title out quickly.

      If sony decides to do something about there current development platform then sony may over take the xbox, if they do nothing then they will probable lose this console war.